IS MICROSOFT READY FOR MICROSOFT’S “NEW DAY?”

You have to admire the orchestration and execution of Microsoft’s official launch of Windows Vista, 2007 Microsoft Office, and Exchange Server 2007 on November 30, 2006. Of course you can’t actually download and use the software yet--that comes at the end of January. But, I’m sure that many of you have participated in the beta testing program and are engaged in the many IT deployment/readiness activities Microsoft has orchestrated. It’s the best orchestrated product launch I’ve ever witnessed and the largest in Microsoft’s history.

Focused on a Single Customer Scenario: Migration

Not surprisingly, with 850 million computers running Windows and 450 million MS Office users around the world, Microsoft is fanatically focused on ease of migration--for end users and IT staff alike. The good news is that this product launch is the first one in my recollection that Microsoft has actually optimized and designed to support the Customer Scenario: “I want to migrate to this next-generation O/S to get my work done better.” So, Microsoft has identified customers’ moments of truth around migration and has worked hard to address them.

For example, Microsoft seems to have picked the following (among others) as key moments of truth:

• The first hour of use for a migrating MS Office user is a Wow! experience.
• End users can figure out how to perform most tasks within five minutes.
• End users can find information they’re seeking in their files/documents/emails within one second.
• Migrating business users is quick, automated, and painless.
• The O/S, email, and browser are more secure.
• The cost of ownership is at least 20 percent lower.

The Largest Customer Testing Effort in Microsoft’s History

In his executive email today, Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer describes the process of designing these new products as the result of “an unprecedented partnership between Microsoft and our customers. We worked hand in hand with tens of thousands of customers who allowed us to watch them use Windows, Office, and Exchange in more than one billion work sessions to help us understand how they use these products and how new technologies can help them work more effectively. As we moved toward launch, our customers and partners downloaded more than five million beta versions of the three products. Their valuable suggestions and feedback helped us assess the quality of our work and the value of the new features and capabilities we've built in. No software products have ever been through a more thorough software design and testing process.”

Prognosis?

Because Microsoft has paid attention to the biggest issues that thwart migration and has carefully designed its next-generation products to be easy to use, the adoption rate will be reasonable, but not phenomenal. Any migration gives customers an opportunity to evaluate other options. We predict that at least 30 percent of Microsoft’s current customers will opt out during this transition--either out of Exchange, out of Office, or out of Vista.

Microsoft is the world leader in software platforms in 2006. But by 2012, the majority of software development will have shifted to open source. Today’s massive enterprise software applications will be replaced by smaller, disposable mix-and-match lightweight, loosely-coupled software services that are good enough. We’ll be subscribing to these services as we need them. Microsoft will likely be one of many providers of lightweight software services. But Microsoft will no longer “own” the software environment and the productivity applications we all use to do our work.